Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2833 · MCO → MKE
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:58 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.