Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2834
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2834 · MKE → MCO
departs 8:43 AM CT · arrives 12:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.36 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.