F9 2979 · BUF → RDU

departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2979 · BUF → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?