Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 3044 · ORD → MCO
departs 5:13 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 9/30 64%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.11 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.