Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 3316 · SMF → LAX
departs 7:44 PM PT · arrives 9:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 29%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.