F9 3381 · SAN → SFO

departs 10:25 AM PT · arrives 12:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3381 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?