Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 3449 · ELP → LAS
departs 8:14 PM MT · arrives 9:08 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.