F9 3454 · ATL → LGA

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±8 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3454 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?