F9 3506 · MCO → SJU

departs 6:33 AM ET · arrives 9:41 AM AT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SJU that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3506 · MCO → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?