Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 3554 · MSY → MCO
departs 3:44 PM CT · arrives 6:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.