Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 3559 · MCO → BNA
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 9/30 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.