F9 3565 · DTW → DEN

departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±7 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.26 in

DEN (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3565 · DTW → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?