F9 3666 · SMF → DEN

departs 11:27 AM PT · arrives 3:06 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3666 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?