Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 3855 · PHL → MCO
departs 4:06 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 54%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.