Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 3986 · DFW → PHL
departs 8:32 PM CT · arrives 1:01 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.58 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.