Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4003 · BWI → MCO
departs 9:28 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 31%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 24%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.