Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4061
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4061 · MSN → DEN
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 9:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.26 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.