F9 4144 · SMF → LAS

departs 8:26 AM PT · arrives 10:08 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4144 · SMF → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?