Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4146 · LAX → MCO
departs 11:00 PM PT · arrives 7:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.