Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4161 · PHL → DFW
departs 4:38 PM ET · arrives 7:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±8 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.74 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.