Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4184 · PHX → IAH
departs 9:04 AM MT · arrives 1:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.