Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4190
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4190 · CMH → MCO
departs 10:28 AM ET · arrives 12:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.