Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4244 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

F9 4244 · RNO → LAS

departs 1:04 PM PT · arrives 2:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4244 · RNO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?