Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4280 · DFW → CVG
departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 52%
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 11%
Fri 10/9 29%
Sat 10/10 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.