F9 4346 · LAX → DEN

departs 11:25 AM PT · arrives 3:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4346 · LAX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?