Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4386 · DEN → CID
departs 11:04 AM MT · arrives 2:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CID that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↓
CID usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CID (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.