Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4401 · LAS → SFO
departs 2:48 PM PT · arrives 4:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.