Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4411 · BWI → FLL
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Wed 9/30 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.