Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4418 · ELP → DEN
departs 6:08 PM MT · arrives 8:09 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.