Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4505 · MCI → LAS
departs 4:32 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±9 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.67 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.