Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4506 · LAS → MCI
departs 10:52 AM PT · arrives 3:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.77 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.