Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4559 · IAD → DFW
departs 6:46 PM ET · arrives 9:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 38%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±6 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.74 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.