Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4593 · LAX → SFO
departs 7:07 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 30%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.