Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4685 · PSE → MCO
departs 10:06 AM AT · arrives 1:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PSE that day
↓
10am departures from PSE are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PSE (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.