Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4712 · ATL → BWI
departs 9:17 PM ET · arrives 11:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.