Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4776
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4776 · DEN → LIT
departs 3:50 PM MT · arrives 7:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 34%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LIT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.