F9 4948 · MYR → PHL

departs 9:34 AM ET · arrives 11:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MYR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4948 · MYR → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?