Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4978 · IAH → MCO
departs 7:23 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±5 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.