G4 1192 · SFB → LSE

departs 6:41 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LSE more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LSE?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LSE that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LSE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LSE (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1192 · SFB → LSE

Odds over time

How late will it get to LSE?