G4 1225 · SFB → TYS

departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1225 · SFB → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?