Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 1226 · BMI → SFB
departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 11:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BMI that day
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
BMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BMI (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.65 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.