Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1232
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 1232 · SFB → FSD
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SFB are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.