G4 1236 · EYW → LCK

departs 1:29 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LCK more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LCK?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
57%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at EYW that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LCK

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip2.68 in

LCK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1236 · EYW → LCK

Odds over time

How late will it get to LCK?