Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 1240 · SFB → BMI
departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BMI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BMI that day
↑
5pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB
↓
BMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BMI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.