Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 1241 · MDT → SFB
departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 11:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT
↓
MDT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.