G4 1246 · LIT → SFB

departs 1:04 PM CT · arrives 4:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ SFB is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 1pm departures from LIT are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1246 · LIT → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?