G4 1259 · SFB → BMI

departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BMI?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BMI that day

↑ 5pm departures from SFB are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↓ BMI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BMI (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1259 · SFB → BMI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BMI?