G4 1261 · EVV → SFB

departs 8:12 AM CT · arrives 11:22 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EVV

Weather at each end

EVV (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling10,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1261 · EVV → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?