G4 1269 · LCK → EYW

departs 5:04 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ EYW usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LCK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip2.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1269 · LCK → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?