G4 1317 · SFB → MLI

departs 6:21 AM ET · arrives 8:11 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MLI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MLI that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ MLI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

MLI (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.83 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1317 · SFB → MLI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MLI?